Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election so resoundingly was a shock to almost everyone aside from those who voted for him.
The fallout of this year’s race has been far more subdued than in 2021, but for businesses in the UK, and indeed the UK’s entire economy, there was a shock within the noise of the rhetoric that could have profound consequences if implemented.
As part of his winning pitch to the US electorate, Trump promised to impose a blanket 20% tariff on all imports into the US – a move which could cost the UK a substantial £22bn in lost exports. That was the immediate response. Analysis and comment pieces in the weeks since have been more mixed, with potential opportunities for UK firms and the UK economy itself.
Immediate reactions to the Trump tariff proposal
The announcement of a proposed 20% tariff on all imports into the United States prompted widespread alarm from policymakers and trade experts across the UK. The Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) at the University of Sussex estimated the tariff could lead to a £22bn reduction in UK exports to the US. This amounts to a 2.6% contraction of overall export activity and underscores the potential disruption that could ripple through key industries heavily reliant on US trade. Sectors such as fishing, petroleum products, and mining are particularly vulnerable, with projected export reductions of 21.5%, 20.9%, and 20.4%, respectively. Potentially industry-closing levels.
For the UK’s broader economy, prospects mightn’t wouldn’t be much brighter. According to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), economic growth could fall to just 0.4% in 2025 if these tariffs take effect, compared to the 1.2% growth projected in a tariff-free scenario. Such an economic slowdown would compound challenges already posed by post-Brexit trade barriers, the ongoing energy crisis, and inflationary pressures. Businesses relying on transatlantic exports, including aerospace and automotive manufacturers, would face significant headwinds.
The immediate reaction among business leaders has been one of urgency and concern. Many firms have called for greater government support to help mitigate the fallout. This includes calls for financial assistance, supply chain realignments, and diversification of export markets. While government intervention can provide a temporary reprieve, many analysts caution that such measures alone may not be enough to counteract the systemic challenges posed by tariffs of this magnitude.
The response in Westminster has been similarly vocal. Trade experts and MPs alike have underscored the need for a diplomatic approach to prevent these tariffs from materialising. Discussions around reviving elements of the US-UK free trade agreement talks have gained traction, although analysts warn that the political appetite for bilateral trade deals under Trump may be limited. The UK government faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining its relationship with the US, while seeking alternative trade avenues if needed.
It would take a monumental diplomatic effort to get the UK some sort of tariff pass, especially given the comments made about Trump from Labour frontbenchers.
Opportunities amidst the challenge
While initial analyses painted a bleak picture, subsequent commentaries have offered a more balanced perspective, suggesting that the UK economy could, in certain respects, outperform its rivals. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) highlighted that the proposed tariffs, while potentially reducing GDP by 0.9%, could also present strategic opportunities for the UK to pivot and innovate. For instance, the UK’s regulatory flexibility post-Brexit positions it uniquely to adapt to shifting global economic landscapes.
One potential area for growth lies in green technology and clean energy. Analysts have noted that if the US under Trump de-emphasises investment in these sectors, the UK could seize the opportunity to become a leader in these burgeoning industries. With government backing and international partnerships, British firms could establish themselves at the forefront of clean energy technology, attracting global investment and fostering economic resilience. This approach would also align with the UK’s broader commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Another area of focus is strengthening economic and trade ties with the European Union. Research from the CITP revealed that nearly 50% of trade experts believe that improving relations with the EU should be a top priority – including here at Go Exporting. A closer partnership with the EU could offset some of the economic damage caused by US tariffs. Improved EU relations would facilitate smoother trade routes, reduce bureaucratic barriers, and offer access to one of the world’s largest markets. For sectors such as manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and financial services, an EU-oriented strategy could prove crucial.
Furthermore, there are opportunities to recalibrate the UK’s trade strategy to target emerging markets in Asia and Africa. These regions are experiencing rapid economic growth and offer lucrative prospects for UK exporters. Diversifying trade partnerships could mitigate dependence on the US market and bolster long-term economic stability. Programs such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) could play a pivotal role in achieving this diversification.
Ultimately, while the Trump tariffs present a formidable challenge, they also serve as a wake-up call for UK policymakers and businesses to embrace innovation, diversification, and resilience. The emphasis should now shift to leveraging the UK’s unique position as a post-Brexit, globally connected economy capable of adapting to shifting geopolitical currents. Strategic investments in emerging industries and robust partnerships with new and existing allies may enable the UK to weather the storm and emerge stronger.
Whether or not Trump’s tariffs come into effect or not waits to be seen. If they do, there could be Brexit-level upheaval for many firms and entire sectors within the UK economy.
Let’s wait, watch, and see.
Go Exporting has received a certificate of appreciation from the Asian Exporters Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AECCI) following a successful engagement in their recent B2B forum.
The event was an online forum arranged by AECCI to connect Indian companies with relevant approved experts. Go Exporting was selected as the specialist consultant and approved partner for the UK.
Go Exporting CEO, Mike Wilson, was personally recognised for his support, cooperation and expert advice contributed to support the advancement of the Indian trade community.
AECCI commented that: “On behalf of the Asian Exporters’ Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AECCI), we sincerely thank you for participating in the AECCI Virtual B2B Event. Your presence and valuable contributions made a significant impact, and we are truly delighted to have partnered with you.
“The event was a great success, especially due to the engagement of delegates like you, which encouraged the feel of collaboration and desired outcomes.”
Mike met with seven companies looking for a variety of advice and services to expand their international business, including export readiness, customs and compliance, and finding distributors and international leads.
Learn more about the virtual B2B forum through the AECCI’s website and portal here.
This summer, Go Exporting CEO Mike Wilson joined Alibaba’s Eric Cross for a webinar examining the opportunities for US firms to trade in the EU.
The talk covered a broad range of topics including industry-specific opportunities, market statistics, administrative structure, key markets and culture and approach.
Watch the webinar in full below.
Find out more about exporting into the UK in this free guide where we cover everything from approvals and VAT to market research, customs and compliance, and effective marketing.
An increasing number of UK importers are creating their own internal checkpoints in a bid to overcome post-Brexit border delays as part of the Trusted Trader scheme.
The Financial Times and Fresh Produce Consortium are reporting that more and more plant and food traders have set up their own control points for product inspections, hoping to bypass government-run facilities which are facing delays – in particular the Sevington inspection site.
The trusted trader program, or Authorised Operator Status, was originally introduced to allow prolific importers to carry out their own produce checks as they’re already aware of the regulatory requirements and are, as the name suggests, trusted to give the go ahead.
Chief executive of the Fresh Produce Consortium, Nigel Jenney, told the FPC that: “The industry offered cost-effective solutions years ago but these were ignored by the previous government. They should have used the industry’s facilities and expertise that already existed and we would have readily shared it. Consequently, it’s a problem of their own making.
“Our solutions remain valid today and are a short and long-term solution for the flower, plant, fruit and vegetable sectors, as Sevington is simply not fit for purpose.
“The new Government needs to act now before SMEs fail, through no fault of their own.”
Becoming trusted traders
Businesses with a long history of customs compliance and have been through a thorough HMRC audit can be granted Authorised Operator Status, with numerous benefits including taking checks away from the border, reducing required documentary checks on goods, and essentially skipping the queues.
After delays and other issues such as IT problems at the Sevington border site, many firms are now looking to become trusted traders in their own right or partner with other firms who hold the accreditation.
But despite the recent post-Brexit interest in the scheme, UK firms still lag behind EU rivals.
Trade and customs specialist Andy Bridges told the Daily Update over the summer that: “We’re not even touching the EU countries on number of accredited firms, let alone the rest of the world.
“And it’s not just the EU – other countries, the US, Japan, even China – all over the world, other countries recognise this scheme.
“In essence, it’s giving you an enhanced degree of reputation and status worldwide.”
If your business is interested in ways to help streamline import processes and better manage new customs and compliance requirements, you can speak to the Go Exporting team today.
Go Exporting is delighted to have been named the Most Trusted Business Exporting Consultancy at this year’s UK Enterprise Awards.
The awards, hosted by SME News Magazine, recognise firms which demonstrate strong values and prioritise respect, innovation, excellence and tireless hard work.
Awards coordinator Laura O’Carroll commented that: “Hosting this year’s UK Enterprise Awards has been an excellent experience again, and I truly wish all of our winners all the best as they continue to elevate their spheres Congratulations on your success!”
Mike Wilson, CEO of Go Exporting said: “It’s always great to be recognised for the contribution you make to the wider business community. Through our educational partnerships with the likes of The British Library and Alibaba, as well as our long-standing track record of supporting businesses to successfully enter new international markets, this is another indicator that the work we’re doing is both valued and helping organizations to grow.”
On 15th August, Go Exporting CEO Mike Wilson will be teaming up with Alibaba to deliver a webinar guiding US SMBs on how to export to the EU.
The webinar will be co-hosted by Alibaba’s Eric Cross and will offer critical insight and strategies to help small firms successfully enter and thrive in key European markets.
This webinar will give attendees the do’s and don’ts, as well as the regulatory requirements, from a true industry specialist. Plus, there will be opportunities to ask your own specific questions at the end.
Sound good? Join Mike and Eric by signing up here.
We’ll see you then!
CEO of Go Exporting, Mike Wilson, has contributed 10 top tips to a global publication of 1001 business tips from 101 exporters and global trade advisors.
The publication, arranged by The Belmont Business Enterprise Centre Inc in Australia, will form part of an e-book to support sole traders and SMEs in expanding their exporting skills and knowledge, and how best to prepare for a national export development grant program.
The 10 contributions from Mike Wilson were:
- Define your objectives
- Prepare your export readiness action plan
- Discovering where to export
- Finding focus
- Choosing routes to market
- Assessing pricing and market entry viability
- Creating a bespoke international marketing plan
- Defining how to implement that plan
- Compiling a detailed export plan
- Reviewing and refining your approach
A major aspect of international expansion is researching prospects and arranging introductions with prospective clients in your target territories. And that’s what Go Exporting has been doing for Slovenian-based automation, intelligence and energy specialists, INEA.
INEA delivers industrial automation, manufacturing intelligence, and industrial energy management solutions worldwide. It is one of the largest system integrators and industrial solution providers in Europe, specialising in display assembly and visual inspection.
And to help their expansion plans across Europe, they engaged Go Exporting to help find prospects of the right calibre to drive that growth.
Chief Commercial Officer at INEA, Saša Muhič Pureber, said: “We are looking to expand our international reach and engaged with Go Exporting to support this project via their LeadsTrack service. From the beginning, they showed a high level of professionalism and commitment by taking the time to understand our advanced technology, its benefits for our customers, and the niche markets we work in.
“Go Exporting created an ideal customer profile for our products and then carried out extensive research to find companies matching that profile on a global scale. These companies were approached by the Go Exporting team using various methods with a view to arranging meetings for our team to introduce our technology.
“We have been extremely pleased with the results. Go Exporting’s activities have introduced INEA to a number of new potential customers and our team has been impressed with the quality of the leads provided.
“We highly recommend the services of Go Exporting for any company intending to expand into new international markets and looking for introductions to new customers.
“We found LeadsTrack from Go Exporting to be a cost-effective and efficient method of finding new customers in our target markets.”
Mike Wilson, CEO of Go Exporting, noted: “It is a pleasure working with INEA, introducing their advanced manufacturing and inspection systems to new markets. We have secured introductions and RFQs for significant projects from key OEMs and Tier One manufacturers for their technical teams to progress.
“We continue to work with INEA and thank them for selecting our LeadsTrack service to support their international expansion.”
International lead generation with LeadsTrack
Are you looking to find new customers in your target markets with the support of proven experts in international expansion? Then LeadsTrack will work for you, too.
We have developed LeadsTrack to provide businesses with a cost-effective solution to generate high-quality enquiries. Our team of researchers and local consultants are skilled in identifying the right contacts and turning them into genuine opportunities for your organisation.
Your international lead generation, taken care of.
Interested in expanding your business into new Scandinavian markets? Then you’re in luck!
Earlier this month, Go Exporting CEO Mike Wilson joined Business Wales for a webinar advising delegates as to the export opportunities in Denmark and Sweden.
The webinar included details on market statistics, administrative structure, key sectors and opportunities, business culture and post-Brexit dynamics.
Watch the webinar in full below.
Looking to expand internationally but aren’t sure where to start, or lack the internal resources to drive international growth? Go Exporting specialises in helping firms like yours to open a world of opportunities.
Learn more about our international trade consultancy services here.
The next government needs to deliver a better trading relationship with the EU as a matter of priority.
That’s the view of the British Chambers of Commerce, one of the most influential business networks, set out as part of its Future of the Economy Manifesto for 2024.
The manifesto focuses on five key areas of the UK economy, from green innovation and digital, to people, work, and global Britain.
The manifesto notes that: “There is a clear need to improve trading relationships with the EU, which remains our biggest trading partner.
“Retaining Britain’s place on the global stage also means keeping our most successful businesses who may be looking overseas for finance. British growth capital should be made more accessible.
“Finally, the government should only diverge from EU rules where it adds value to UK plc. We encourage close alignment on regulations that impact Britain’s global trade, such as standards on manufactured goods, while supporting divergence where there is a clear benefit, such as the Mansion House reforms that will help unlock additional investment for UK firms.”
The manifesto put forward three key recommendations for growing global trade;
- Implement trade deals which improve export potential for business
- Grow foreign direct investment into the UK
- Continue reforms to increase UK investment
A Swiss solution?
William Bain, BCC Head of Trade Policy, said that the UK should be looking towards a Swiss-style deal with the EU after a recent trip to the country.
He said that: “Switzerland is one of the UK’s strongest trading partners with a depth to its finance and services trade that mirrors our own. It is also at the heart of Europe’s life sciences and pharmaceutical industries.
“As a member of the European Free Trade Area, while sitting outside the European Economic Area, it can set its own course on many regulatory issues.
“But it retains close links with the EU Single Market, particularly in goods. These have been developed through bilateral agreements with Brussels over the past half a century, though Switzerland is also a full participant in the Schengen Zone, allowing friction-free movement through Swiss territory for qualifying citizens.”
Grow through the growing pains with Go Exporting
If Brexit has hampered international trade growth, or put the brakes on your export plans altogether, then we can help.
Go Exporting are the industry experts in helping firms to open a world of opportunities abroad, from identifying potentially profitable markets, to putting in place the export strategy and distributors to get you there.
Interested? Learn more about our international trade consultancy here.