Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election so resoundingly was a shock to almost everyone aside from those who voted for him.

The fallout of this year’s race has been far more subdued than in 2021, but for businesses in the UK, and indeed the UK’s entire economy, there was a shock within the noise of the rhetoric that could have profound consequences if implemented.

As part of his winning pitch to the US electorate, Trump promised to impose a blanket 20% tariff on all imports into the US – a move which could cost the UK a substantial £22bn in lost exports. That was the immediate response. Analysis and comment pieces in the weeks since have been more mixed, with potential opportunities for UK firms and the UK economy itself.

Immediate reactions to the Trump tariff proposal

The announcement of a proposed 20% tariff on all imports into the United States prompted widespread alarm from policymakers and trade experts across the UK. The Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) at the University of Sussex estimated the tariff could lead to a £22bn reduction in UK exports to the US. This amounts to a 2.6% contraction of overall export activity and underscores the potential disruption that could ripple through key industries heavily reliant on US trade. Sectors such as fishing, petroleum products, and mining are particularly vulnerable, with projected export reductions of 21.5%, 20.9%, and 20.4%, respectively. Potentially industry-closing levels.

For the UK’s broader economy, prospects mightn’t wouldn’t be much brighter. According to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), economic growth could fall to just 0.4% in 2025 if these tariffs take effect, compared to the 1.2% growth projected in a tariff-free scenario. Such an economic slowdown would compound challenges already posed by post-Brexit trade barriers, the ongoing energy crisis, and inflationary pressures. Businesses relying on transatlantic exports, including aerospace and automotive manufacturers, would face significant headwinds.

The immediate reaction among business leaders has been one of urgency and concern. Many firms have called for greater government support to help mitigate the fallout. This includes calls for financial assistance, supply chain realignments, and diversification of export markets. While government intervention can provide a temporary reprieve, many analysts caution that such measures alone may not be enough to counteract the systemic challenges posed by tariffs of this magnitude.

The response in Westminster has been similarly vocal. Trade experts and MPs alike have underscored the need for a diplomatic approach to prevent these tariffs from materialising. Discussions around reviving elements of the US-UK free trade agreement talks have gained traction, although analysts warn that the political appetite for bilateral trade deals under Trump may be limited. The UK government faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining its relationship with the US, while seeking alternative trade avenues if needed.

It would take a monumental diplomatic effort to get the UK some sort of tariff pass, especially given the comments made about Trump from Labour frontbenchers.

Opportunities amidst the challenge

While initial analyses painted a bleak picture, subsequent commentaries have offered a more balanced perspective, suggesting that the UK economy could, in certain respects, outperform its rivals. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) highlighted that the proposed tariffs, while potentially reducing GDP by 0.9%, could also present strategic opportunities for the UK to pivot and innovate. For instance, the UK’s regulatory flexibility post-Brexit positions it uniquely to adapt to shifting global economic landscapes.

One potential area for growth lies in green technology and clean energy. Analysts have noted that if the US under Trump de-emphasises investment in these sectors, the UK could seize the opportunity to become a leader in these burgeoning industries. With government backing and international partnerships, British firms could establish themselves at the forefront of clean energy technology, attracting global investment and fostering economic resilience. This approach would also align with the UK’s broader commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Another area of focus is strengthening economic and trade ties with the European Union. Research from the CITP revealed that nearly 50% of trade experts believe that improving relations with the EU should be a top priority – including here at Go Exporting. A closer partnership with the EU could offset some of the economic damage caused by US tariffs. Improved EU relations would facilitate smoother trade routes, reduce bureaucratic barriers, and offer access to one of the world’s largest markets. For sectors such as manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and financial services, an EU-oriented strategy could prove crucial.

Furthermore, there are opportunities to recalibrate the UK’s trade strategy to target emerging markets in Asia and Africa. These regions are experiencing rapid economic growth and offer lucrative prospects for UK exporters. Diversifying trade partnerships could mitigate dependence on the US market and bolster long-term economic stability. Programs such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) could play a pivotal role in achieving this diversification.

Ultimately, while the Trump tariffs present a formidable challenge, they also serve as a wake-up call for UK policymakers and businesses to embrace innovation, diversification, and resilience. The emphasis should now shift to leveraging the UK’s unique position as a post-Brexit, globally connected economy capable of adapting to shifting geopolitical currents. Strategic investments in emerging industries and robust partnerships with new and existing allies may enable the UK to weather the storm and emerge stronger.

Whether or not Trump’s tariffs come into effect or not waits to be seen. If they do, there could be Brexit-level upheaval for many firms and entire sectors within the UK economy.

Let’s wait, watch, and see.